Here’s an interesting article that has kept me busy for a couple days. It’s really a breath of fresh air to me and I’m hoping I can write a lot more about it in the future. It’s on the Washington Post web site, which does require free registration … I advise you take the time to read it, even if you aren’t a regular Washington Post reader … the registration is no hassle, I’ve been a member there for years.
Avoiding Plane Crashes By Crunching Numbers
Data Mining Helps Identify Subtle Flaws
By Del Quentin Wilber Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, January 13, 2008
PHOENIX — For decades, aviation authorities played the role of homicide detectives. When an airliner went down, they scoured the crash site and flight recorders for clues that often showed how to avert future accidents. But with so few crashes in recent years, air carriers and regulators have been trying to find other ways to identify potentially dangerous trends. Instead of digging through debris, they now spend far more time combing through computer records, including data downloaded from thousands of daily flights and scores of pilot incident reports. … Read the full accident prevention article here.
The gist of the article finally tries to make plain to the public what I have been trying to communicate for years … or present methodology for so-called accident prevention is not accident prevention at all … it would be much more accurately called accident forensics.
After an accident occurs the NTSG and many other agencies sift through the wreckage and records and find all kind of causal factors. real ‘needle in a haystack’ work, and I certainly applaud all those who devote their careers to this work.
But they are applying their efforts in the wrong direction. Primitive forms of flight recorders have been carried on some airliners since the late 1930’s. After people have been splattered all over the face of a mountain the latter-day descendants of these black boxes’ can tell us what we already know … the plane was flying too low to avoid the granite.
I don’t want to sound too rude or too trite, but I’ve read literally thousands of accident reports and I did some accident investigation field work when I was in the military. Most of it inspires the phrase, "No shit, Dick Tracy, what gave you your first clue?’ when I read it.
The time to find out why pilots are going wrong come before the aluminum strikes the rocks, not after. Time and time again records have shown, after the fact, that certain approach procedures or certain pilots or certain airline operating practices are flawed.
By studying records en masse before a crash happens we can not only save lives, but we can save huge amounts of money. The records are there, the computing power is there, the proven ROI is there … it just requires that airline operators and the government get busy and do it.
The only part that’s missing, sadly, from this chain are accurate records as to the aircraft’s location and path across the earth. We already spent billions to provide such a system … it’s called GPS. For a trivial amount we could equip every aircraft … yes I said every, from A-380’s down to Super Cub aerial applicators with a device like this company sells and prevent even more accidents … as well as retiring a ,lot of antiquated radar and mainframe technology that the FAA persists in keeping around in the operating museum they call an Airspace Management System. When will we insist that the FAA make proper use of GPS? It’s so much more than navigation.
It all boils down to something we call ROI (Return On Investment) in the business world … spend a small amount, reap a fortune. If you are an aircraft operator, a pilot, if you fly on aircraft and/or aircraft fly over your head 9pretty much everyone, isn’t that?) then you need to get educated and interested in this idea so that we can make the 21st century a lot safer and more profitable than the 20th.
And if you think your interests are strictly surface-based, like trucks or cars or boats? Tune in tomorrow and I’ll tell you why the exact same techniques can save you a fortune also.